Israel’s coming war with Hezbollah

The army that conquers makes certain of victory, and then seeks battle — Sun Tzu

Clashes on the border between Israel and Lebanon have escalated between Hezbollah and the IDF to the point of critical mass, as Israel’s military offensive in Gaza continues on into its ninth month with no end in sight. With this in mind, and with the stakes involved taken into account, it seems now to be a question of ‘when’ not ‘if’Israel will be forced to open up a second front against the formidable Lebanese Shia resistance organisation.

It was always inevitable that this would be the case. Ever since the month-long conflict between Hezbollah and Israel of July-August 2006, both have been preparing for the next one, reviewing and upgrading their respective capabilities, tactics and training with precisely what is unfolding now key in their forward planning.

Glaringly absent from the welter of analyses by pro-Israel think tanks across the West on the coming conflict between Hezbollah and the IDF has been the crucial factor separating both. Said crucial factor lies on the level not of preparedness but psychology. And it is here where Hezbollah holds the advantage.

Put more simply, in 2006 Hezbollah battered the Israelis to the point of abject humiliation. It was the first ever military defeat of the much and hugely-vaunted…