Member-only story
The Kremlin’s assumptions when it comes to Ukraine have backfired spectacularly
The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present. Abraham Lincoln
The sight of drones smashing into Moscow recently days is hugely significant symbolically, if not militarily, given the relative lack of damage and loss of life incurred. They have thrown up some salient questions when it comes to Putin’s decision-making and understanding of Ukraine and the West in the directing of Russia’s military campaign from the outset.
Though Kiev continues to deny responsibility for the drone attacks, no doubt with a view to avoiding any possible pushback from its Western backers over attacking the Russian capital, it is hard to fathom than any entity other than Ukrainian special forces operating deep inside Russian territory is responsible, possibly with the participation of anti-Putin Russian collaborators.
The reality when it comes to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is that Putin and his advisers grievously, almost criminally, underestimated the willingness of the Ukrainians to resist, and also the West’s willingness to support them in this endeavour to the extent that it has. The Russian leader’s initial expectation that his so-called ‘special military operation’ (SMO) would be over in a matter of weeks if not days was rooted in a number of costly…
